From Rock Bottom, To Actually Getting Somewhere

I thought I’d already had my “worst day” months ago when making the rookie mistake of letting a pre-race horse trade go in-play. I lost 15% of my bank in roughly 60 seconds with one single trade. It actually felt quite nice, things could only go up from here surely?!?

Last week however, I discovered the true meaning of variance. 13 pre-selected football trades (over/under 2.5’s) and a some correct score trading lost in a row. It cost me well over 30% of my bank and this time it really hurt. I’d spent a long time earning this cash through trading and matched betting combined.

Despite the pain, it was another valuable lesson that this is a numbers game and emotions cannot come in to play. Losses are a fact of life in trading and if the stats are lined up with pre-selected football trades, you will profit in the long run with a good strategy.

An interesting afternoon of horse trading:

I’ve moved over to using Bet Angel as my Betfair weapon of choice after trialling a few others. It is ridiculously customisable and I’ve found it perfect for pre-race trading.

I managed to get up around £20 pre-race trading at Wolverhampton only to waste it trying my hand at in play. The pre-race trade that did me the best was catching on to the back of a lovely drifter, it felt all too easy. I layed for large amounts when the price temporarily dipped, then gradually cashed out the profits as it rose again. Here’s a shot of the graph in question:

Thanks Cosmic Ray!

A decent night of football trading, finally:

Being extremely selective in the games I was picking helped massively. Taking in to account in play stats, previous game stats, odds and any other indicators I could find left me with about 4/5 games to trade on for correct score/ltd trading. They all came through and left me with a nice amount of green.

It was the first night in along time that I listened to my own gut instead of trying to understand 3rd party tips that were already 20 minutes out of date.